Modelling sustainable development demands for the integration of the three core goals of sustainable economic growth, social stability and environmental protection within one modelling framework.

In order to be able to analyse trade-offs between these three dimensions and develop solutions to reconcile them, it is necessary to integrate environmental and social indicators more explicitly in economic models. This economic viewpoint is legitimate due to the fact that policy actions are primarily based on economic considerations. The integration of the ecological and socio-economic systems with their various linkages and feedbacks is needed to appropriately assist policy-makers in their decisions for suitable strategies to address the most challenging environmental and socio- economic problems.

 

With a suitable model we gain knowledge about possible impacts of different policy measures on economic, social and environmental aspects. It illustrates the effects of economic policy on the environment, but also the impacts of environmental policies on the economy. Based on this knowledge we can derive and determine a sustainable mix of policy instruments and measures. Thus, these models can be used to simulate und evaluate different scenarios of future developments, which are based on different policy measures. Based on these scenario evaluations, policy recommendations can be formulated on how the three main sustainability objectives can best be reconciled.

 

A sustainability model must also permit the illustration of structural change, since the long-term goal of sustainable development requires a re-organisation of economic structures. This demand is directly linked to the application of multi-sector models, since the manifold interrelations between the socio-economy and the environment with its complex structures can only be depicted in a detailed representation of the sectors of an economy. It is possible to recognize particular burdens on certain industries or social groups and design a social reconciliation and supporting measures to offset these burdens. Thereby the transition to a sustainable development can be arranged by considering social and economic compatibility.

SERI’s approach

Input-output analysis:
SERI applies environmentally extended input-output analysis to evaluate recent development trends of economic, social and environmental indicators. We investigate which economic activities are directly and indirectly responsible for the use of natural resources or the generation of air emissions. With the help of Structural Decomposition Analysis we are able to illustrate which factors (driving forces, e.g. economic growth, technological change, etc.) are responsible for this development. We can thereby illustrate whether decoupling of resource use and CO2 emissions from economic development took place in recent years.

Dynamic structural model:
Beside this comparative-static analysis, SERI developed in close co-operation with GWS a dynamic sustainability model for Austria..

This macro-econometric multi-sector model is in particular necessary for a dynamic analysis which considers all relevant linkages and feedbacks of the natural environment with the economic and social system and is able to simulate future developments. Such a model quantifies short and medium-term effects (up to 20 years) of different sustainability scenarios compared with a business as usual scenario (baseline scenario) and considers also their environmental and social effects..

Scenario development:
Sustainability models (which take the development over time into account) enable scenario simulations of different policies and instruments to estimate their effects for different sectors and the economy as a whole. They do not only explain historical trends, but can be used to simulate possible future developments.

SERI uses scenario approaches in order to provide an illustration of possible future sustainable development paths. The aim is not to forecast the future, but describe a hypothetical development for future situations.

We develop and evaluate different scenarios for different sustainability-related topics (e.g. resource use, biodiversity, renewable energy).

Concerning the choice of the instruments it must be considered that a co-ordinated mix of different measures are necessary to reach sustainability goals, since one instrument is not able to address the various goals of the concept of sustainability. In this respect it is also important, that a model should be able to illustrate all reactions to political measures, which can be expected, in the best possible way.